modeling time series of dust phenomena in ahvaz

abstract: the dust is one of the weather phenomena that have negative environmental effects and consequences. the central city of ahvaz in khuzestan province is one of cities that in every year witnessed the dust in its environment. in this study, after determining that the dust phenomena data are abnormal, using the sen's nonparametric model been proceed to modeling of changes and survey the time series of dust phenomena in ahvaz during the statistical period (1951-2005).in this study, using three method of two half average, mann-kendall and sen's the analysis of dust phenomena in ahvaz has been performed. after determining the trend monthly, seasonal and annual scales proceed to determine the slop equation for dust phenomena that by using it you can predict occurrence of them in 2015. the results of this study first showed that most of dust phenomena occur in the warm period of year in ahvaz. the frequency of phenomena in the second half of statistical period has had salient increase (double), than the first period. totally, increasing trend of dust phenomena, except in january, has been 95 and 99 percent significant in annual months and seasonal scale level.